Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 13.052181 14.932024 16.956222 19.294102 21.915896 24.761347 28.079223
2025-05-25 10.306466 12.859418 15.820693 19.493884 23.911113 29.034353 35.407537
2025-06-01 8.805098 11.619549 15.043515 19.486632 25.067505 31.810282 40.534591
2025-06-08 7.569829 10.512642 14.250569 19.301186 25.894874 34.152406 45.208946
2025-06-15 6.759700 9.811137 13.833433 19.458727 27.046102 36.838005 50.327809
2025-06-22 6.239744 9.423484 13.761865 20.017805 28.702011 40.208359 56.457920
2025-06-29 5.559690 8.728003 13.186706 19.808565 29.257143 42.093413 60.650814
2025-07-06 4.768755 7.784042 12.166611 18.869220 28.696652 42.379716 62.619233
2025-07-13 4.470873 7.543738 12.133659 19.328716 30.120580 45.456296 68.573548
2025-07-20 4.181975 7.285262 12.043724 19.680640 31.384835 48.340611 74.358507
2025-07-27 3.829477 6.888987 11.705141 19.618050 32.007039 50.299161 78.862041
2025-08-03 3.479481 6.461841 11.279800 19.379978 32.329387 51.805211 82.734639
2025-08-10 3.209697 6.151473 11.026734 19.410148 33.087478 54.029774 87.835516
2025-08-17 3.001396 5.928554 10.899291 19.631939 34.155331 56.771018 93.841072
2025-08-24 2.773257 5.646349 10.645573 19.617288 34.824525 58.901491 98.964172
2025-08-31 2.540062 5.331614 10.309015 19.433292 35.193590 60.558985 103.394687
2025-09-07 2.382549 5.143827 10.179144 19.590889 36.129691 63.147606 109.389090
2025-09-14 2.296789 5.086724 10.278491 20.153680 37.775822 66.948272 117.474873
2025-09-21 2.111987 4.814679 9.960662 19.943057 38.066134 68.515892 121.957873
2025-09-28 1.851952 4.362715 9.268647 18.998039 37.005737 67.765684 122.552201
2025-10-05 1.784006 4.306635 9.331360 19.460320 38.475327 71.351502 130.539906
2025-10-12 1.707953 4.225760 9.338495 19.814387 39.760425 74.663292 138.172750
2025-10-19 1.592687 4.047414 9.137250 19.751415 40.269874 76.639738 143.575475